Term	Simple Explanation
Ticker	A stock's symbol (e.g., AAPL for Apple, TSLA for Tesla)
Pipeline	The 5-stage daily cycle: Collect → Analyze → Predict → Validate → Learn
Error %	How far off a prediction was. Green < 5%, Amber 5–10%, Red > 10%
Confidence	How sure the system is (0 to 1). Above 0.7 is strong
Confidence Band	A predicted price range (low to high) instead of a single number
Band Hit	Whether the actual price fell within the predicted range
Sentiment	How positive or negative the news is
Momentum	Whether sentiment is getting stronger or weaker (0–100)
Buzz	Social media engagement — how much discussion an article generates (0–100)
Relevance	How important an article is to the tracked stock (0–100)
Surprise	An unexpected event detected in the news (earnings beat/miss, economic shock, etc.)
Magnitude	How big a surprise is (0–100). 0–30 = minor, 30–60 = moderate, 60–100 = major
Direction	Whether a surprise is positive (beat) or negative (miss)
Cognitive Bias	An irrational thinking pattern (like FOMO) that affects decisions
Bullish	Expecting the price to go up
Bearish	Expecting the price to go down
OHLCV	Open, High, Low, Close, Volume — the standard daily trading data fields
Volume	Number of shares traded. Higher = more investor interest
RSI	A 0–100 score. Above 70 = might be overbought. Below 30 = might be oversold
EPS	Earnings Per Share — profit divided by all shares. Higher = more profitable per share
P/E Ratio	Price divided by annual earnings. High = growth expected, Low = possibly undervalued
Revenue	Total income from sales before any expenses are deducted
Net Income	Profit after all expenses, taxes, and costs — the bottom line
Gross Profit	Revenue minus the direct cost of producing goods or services
Operating Income	Profit from core business operations, excluding interest and taxes
EBITDA	Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization — a proxy for operating cash flow
Income Statement	Financial report showing revenue, expenses, and profit over a period
Balance Sheet	Snapshot of what a company owns (assets), owes (liabilities), and shareholders' equity
Cash Flow Statement	Tracks actual cash coming in and going out from operations, investments, and financing
Assets	Everything a company owns that has value (cash, buildings, inventory, etc.)
Liabilities	Debts and obligations the company owes to others
Equity	Owners' stake: Assets minus Liabilities
Cash & Equivalents	Highly liquid assets like bank deposits and short-term investments
Long-term Debt	Borrowings due more than one year away
Operating Cash Flow	Cash generated from normal business operations — a sign of business health
CapEx	Capital Expenditure — money spent to buy or maintain fixed assets like equipment
Free Cash Flow	Cash left after CapEx — available for dividends, debt repayment, or reinvestment
Dividends	Payments distributed to shareholders from company profits
TTM	Trailing Twelve Months — the most recent four quarters of financial data rolled up
Annual	Financial data covering one full fiscal year
Quarterly	Financial data covering a three-month period
Horizon	How far ahead the prediction looks (short = 1-2 days, long = ~10 days)
Intermediate Prediction	A rough update made during the day as new news arrives
Final Prediction	The refined, complete forecast after all data is processed
Self-Correction	The system notices when it consistently over/under predicts and adjusts automatically
ADF Test	Augmented Dickey-Fuller test — a statistical test that checks whether a time series is stationary (i.e., its properties don't change over time). If the price series is non-stationary, the system differences it before fitting regression models to avoid spurious results
OLS Regression	Ordinary Least Squares — a method that fits a straight line through data points by minimising the sum of squared errors between predicted and actual values. Used to estimate trends, drift, and relationships in price data
MAPE	Mean Absolute Percentage Error — the average prediction error as a percentage. Used as a gating check: if MAPE exceeds a configured threshold, new predictions are withheld to prevent false outputs
RSS	A web feed format used to deliver news articles. FIN monitors RSS feeds from Google News, Yahoo Finance, Reddit, and corporate announcements
Feature Snapshot	A complete record of every signal at prediction time — technical indicators, sentiment, psychology, fundamentals, market context, options, and thesis features. When the actual price is known, the snapshot is "resolved" with the outcome and becomes ML training data
Thesis	The qualitative reasoning produced by the LLM before any price is calculated. Includes direction (bull/bear/neutral), conviction strength, regime assessment, bull/bear scenarios with probabilities, and falsifiable hypotheses
Bull Case	The optimistic scenario where the stock rises. Includes the expected price target, probability assigned, and the catalysts that would drive the move (e.g., strong earnings, positive sentiment shift)
Bear Case	The pessimistic scenario where the stock falls. Includes the expected price target, probability assigned, and the risks that would trigger the decline (e.g., missed earnings, negative surprises)
Base Case	The most likely scenario given current data. Typically the thesis direction with highest conviction — the system's primary prediction path
Tier	The system's fallback chain for price prediction. Tier 1 = your personal ML model (best), Tier 2 = pooled model, Tier 3 = sector-transfer model, Tier 4 = thesis heuristic (always available). Automatically downgrades when recent accuracy drops: if band coverage < 40% or Winkler score > 10, the system falls back to the next tier (T1→T2→T3→T4)
Quantile GBM	Gradient Boosting Machine(GBM) are predictive models that sequentially combine weak decision trees to correct the errors of previous iterations. This is how the system learns
Conformal Prediction	A statistical calibration that adjusts confidence bands to guarantee ~80% coverage — the actual price lands inside the band ~80% of the time on held-out data
Thesis Monitor	A falsifiable hypothesis from the thesis that is tracked daily against live market data. When triggered (e.g., RSI crosses a threshold), it alerts the system that the thesis may need revision
Self-Critique	A second LLM pass that reviews the thesis for consistency, plausibility, and falsifiability before the prediction is saved. The thesis is revised if issues are found
Conviction	How strongly the system believes in its thesis direction (0–100). High conviction = strong directional view. Low conviction = conflicting signals
Regime	The current market state detected by the ADF test. Trending = prices move directionally. Mean-reverting = prices oscillate around an average
Catalyst	An upcoming event or condition that could trigger a price move (e.g., earnings report, economic data release, product launch)
Prediction source	Which tier produced the final price. Tier 1 = personal ML model (best), Tier 4 = thesis heuristic (fallback)
Confidence score	A 0–1 value combining model accuracy, data quality, and agreement. Below 0.3 = weak, above 0.7 = strong
Falsifiable Hypotheses	Specific, testable predictions from the thesis (e.g., "RSI will cross above 58"). Monitored daily — if triggered, the thesis may need revision
Heuristic	A rule-based estimate used when no trained ML model is available. Less precise but always available
Implied Volatility	The market's forecast of future price volatility, derived from options prices. Higher IV = options market expects bigger moves
Put/Call Volume Ratio	Ratio of put options traded to call options traded. Above 1.0 = bearish hedging. Below 0.8 = bullish positioning
Put/Call OI Ratio	Ratio of open put positions to open call positions. Shows outstanding hedging or directional bets
PCR	Put/Call Ratio — ratio of put option volume to call option volume. Above 1.0 = bearish hedging, below 0.8 = bullish positioning. Short for Put/Call Volume Ratio
ATM (At-the-Money)	An option whose strike price is closest to the current stock price — the most liquid and commonly referenced option
Options	Financial derivatives that give the right (not obligation) to buy (call) or sell (put) a stock at a set price before a deadline. Used for hedging, income, and speculation
Options Flow	The volume and direction of options trades — reveals whether institutions are buying puts (hedging/bearish) or calls (bullish)
Gamma	Rate of change of an option's delta. High gamma near expiry can cause rapid price swings as dealers hedge their positions
Short-Covering	When traders who bet against a stock (short sellers) buy it back to close their positions, creating sudden upward price pressure
Distribution Phase	A period where large holders are selling — typically marked by high volume, flat or falling prices, and negative sentiment
Accumulation	A period where buyers are quietly building positions — often before a price move, marked by steady volume and stable prices
Mean-Reversion	The tendency of prices to return to their average over time. Opposite of trending — useful for range-bound stocks
Range-Bound	A market regime where the stock oscillates within a defined price range, with neither buyers nor sellers gaining sustained control. Detected by the ADF test when the series is stationary but not exhibiting strong mean-reversion — prices bounce between support and resistance levels. The system assigns a 1.0 range_bound feature and typically avoids strong directional bets
Weakly Trending	A borderline regime where the ADF test cannot clearly classify the price as trending or mean-reverting. The p-value falls in an ambiguous zone (typically 0.10–0.30), suggesting the stock has some directional drift but not enough statistical confidence to call it a trend. The system flags this as WEAKLY-TRENDING and applies a weaker directional conviction
Risk-Off	A market mood where investors sell risky assets (stocks) and move to safer assets (bonds, gold, cash)
Sector Rotation	Capital flowing from one industry sector to another (e.g., from tech to healthcare) based on economic outlook
Relative Strength	How a stock performs compared to a benchmark (SPY, sector ETF). Positive = outperforming. Negative = underperforming
D/E Ratio	Debt-to-Equity ratio — total liabilities divided by shareholders' equity. Below 1.0 = conservative leverage
P/S Ratio	Price-to-Sales ratio — market cap divided by annual revenue. Useful for unprofitable companies where P/E is meaningless
EV/EBITDA	Enterprise Value divided by EBITDA — a valuation metric that accounts for debt. Lower = cheaper relative to cash flow
Forward P/E	Price divided by expected future earnings. Lower than trailing P/E = analysts expect earnings growth
5yr P/E Range	The high and low P/E ratios the stock has traded at over 5 years. Shows whether current valuation is cheap or expensive historically
Percentile	Where a value sits within its historical range. 15th percentile = cheaper than 85% of the time. 85th = more expensive than 85% of the time
ATR	Average True Range — measures price volatility by averaging the largest daily price swings over 14 days
Volume vs Average	Current volume compared to its 20-day average. 0.8x = 20% below average (quiet). 2x = double average (active)
Earnings Quality	How reliably reported profits translate to actual cash. OCF/NI > 100% = strong (cash exceeds reported profit)
Net Cash	Cash minus total debt. Positive = company could pay off all debt and still have cash left
Idiosyncratic	A move unique to the company — not driven by sector or market trends. Contrasts with systematic (market-wide) moves
FOMO	Fear Of Missing Out — buying because others are buying, driven by fear of being left behind
Herding Behavior	Following the crowd — making decisions based on what everyone else is doing rather than independent analysis
Recency Bias	Overweighting recent events — assuming recent trends will continue while ignoring longer-term patterns
Availability Heuristic	Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind — vivid news feels more likely than quiet fundamentals
Loss Aversion	Feeling losses roughly twice as strongly as equivalent gains — leads to holding losers too long and selling winners too early
Confirmation Bias	Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence
Anchoring	Over-relying on the first piece of information encountered (e.g., a recent price) when making decisions
Overconfidence	Overestimating the accuracy of one's own predictions — leads to underestimating risk
Disposition Effect	The tendency to sell winners too early and hold losers too long — combines loss aversion and confirmation bias
Narrative Bias	Constructing stories to explain random events — finding patterns and causation where there is only noise
Ambiguity Aversion	Preferring known risks over unknown risks — avoiding situations where probability is uncertain
Regret Minimization	Making decisions to avoid future regret — can lead to herd behavior or avoiding bold positions
Pooled Model	An ML model trained on data from multiple users — used when your personal model lacks sufficient training data
Sector-Transfer Model	An ML model trained on a different stock in the same sector — used when no sector-specific model is available
Re-accel	Whether sentiment momentum is accelerating again after a pause — a sign the trend may resume
Interest	Investor attention level for the stock (0–100). Higher = more searches, mentions, and discussion
ADF	Short for Augmented Dickey-Fuller test — checks if price data is stationary (mean-reverting) or trending
MAE	Mean Absolute Error — the average dollar amount predictions are off by, without regard to direction
Rolling MAE	MAE calculated over a rolling window of recent predictions — shows how accuracy changes over time. See MAE for details
Rolling MAPE	MAPE calculated over a rolling window — used for gating: if too high, predictions are paused. See MAPE for details
NI	Net Income — profit after all expenses, taxes, and costs. Same as "Net Income" but abbreviated in reports
Net Mgn	Net Margin — net income as a percentage of revenue. Shows how much of each dollar earned becomes profit
Op Mgn	Operating Margin — operating income as a percentage of revenue. Shows efficiency of core business operations
Debt	Total money owed by the company to lenders. Includes short-term and long-term borrowings
OCF/NI	Operating Cash Flow divided by Net Income — ratio above 100% means the company generates more cash than reported profit (strong earnings quality)
Capex/OCF	Capital Expenditure divided by Operating Cash Flow — shows how much cash is reinvested in the business. Below 30% = low reinvestment
FCF Trend	Free Cash Flow trend over time — Growing = company generates more cash each period. Declining = cash generation is weakening
Trailing P/E	Price divided by actual (not expected) earnings over the past 12 months. The most common P/E variant
Growth Estimates	Analyst forecasts for the stock's earnings growth rate. Shown as index trend (sector) vs stock trend (company)
Revenue Estimates	Analyst forecasts for future revenue — includes average, high, low, and number of analysts covering
Benchmark Returns	How major market indices performed over a period (5d / 20d / 60d). Used for context: was the whole market up or down?
Beta	How much the stock moves relative to the market. Beta > 1 = more volatile than market. Beta < 1 = less volatile
Bias Scores	The 12 cognitive biases measured by the system, weighted by prediction horizon. Higher score = stronger bias detected in news sentiment
herding_behavior	Same as Herding Behavior — appears in bias scores as a field name. Following the crowd rather than analyzing independently
recency_bias	Same as Recency Bias — appears in bias scores as a field name. Overweighting recent events in decision-making
availability_heuristic	Same as Availability Heuristic — appears in bias scores as a field name. Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind
loss_aversion	Same as Loss Aversion — appears in bias scores as a field name. Feeling losses more strongly than equivalent gains
confirmation_bias	Same as Confirmation Bias — appears in bias scores as a field name. Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs
disposition_effect	Same as Disposition Effect — appears in bias scores as a field name. Selling winners too early and holding losers too long
narrative_bias	Same as Narrative Bias — appears in bias scores as a field name. Constructing stories to explain random events
ambiguity_aversion	Same as Ambiguity Aversion — appears in bias scores as a field name. Preferring known risks over unknown risks
regret_minimization	Same as Regret Minimization — appears in bias scores as a field name. Making decisions to avoid future regret
growth_0q_indextrend	Current quarter — sector/industry growth rate estimate from analysts
growth_0q_stocktrend	Current quarter — individual stock's own growth rate estimate
growth_+1q_indextrend	Next quarter — sector/industry growth rate estimate. Compare with stocktrend to see if the company is outpacing its sector
growth_+1q_stocktrend	Next quarter — individual stock's growth rate estimate. Above indextrend = growing faster than peers
growth_0y_indextrend	Current year — sector/industry annual growth rate estimate
growth_0y_stocktrend	Current year — individual stock's annual growth rate estimate
growth_+1y_indextrend	Next year — sector/industry annual growth rate estimate
growth_+1y_stocktrend	Next year — individual stock's annual growth rate estimate
growth_ltg_indextrend	Long-term growth — sector/industry long-term growth rate estimate (analyst consensus)
revenue_0q_avg	Current quarter — analyst consensus (average) revenue estimate
revenue_0q_low	Current quarter — lowest analyst revenue estimate
revenue_0q_high	Current quarter — highest analyst revenue estimate
revenue_0q_growth	Current quarter — expected YoY revenue growth rate
revenue_0q_numberofanalysts	Current quarter — how many analysts contributed estimates
revenue_0q_yearagorevenue	Current quarter — actual revenue from same quarter last year
revenue_+1q_avg	Next quarter — analyst consensus (average) revenue estimate
revenue_+1q_low	Next quarter — lowest analyst revenue estimate
revenue_+1q_high	Next quarter — highest analyst revenue estimate
revenue_+1q_growth	Next quarter — expected YoY revenue growth rate
revenue_+1q_numberofanalysts	Next quarter — how many analysts contributed estimates
revenue_+1q_yearagorevenue	Next quarter — actual revenue from same quarter last year
revenue_0y_avg	Current year — analyst consensus annual revenue estimate
revenue_0y_growth	Current year — expected YoY annual revenue growth
revenue_0y_high	Current year — highest annual revenue estimate
revenue_0y_low	Current year — lowest annual revenue estimate
revenue_0y_numberofanalysts	Current year — number of analysts covering
revenue_0y_yearagorevenue	Current year — prior year actual revenue
revenue_+1y_avg	Next year — analyst consensus annual revenue estimate
revenue_+1y_growth	Next year — expected YoY annual revenue growth
revenue_+1y_high	Next year — highest annual revenue estimate
revenue_+1y_low	Next year — lowest annual revenue estimate
revenue_+1y_numberofanalysts	Next year — number of analysts covering
revenue_+1y_yearagorevenue	Next year — actual revenue from current year (baseline)
Key Uncertainties	Factors the LLM is unsure about — things that could swing the price in either direction (e.g., earnings timing, macro data, sector shifts)
Thesis Reasoning	The full text explanation of why the LLM chose its direction, conviction, and scenarios. Combines all signals into a coherent narrative
SPY	SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — tracks the S&P 500 index. Used as the primary market benchmark for relative strength and correlation
QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust — tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. Used as a tech-heavy benchmark for growth stock comparisons
XLK	Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund — tracks the S&P 500 Technology sector. Used as the sector benchmark for tech stocks
Options Context	Summary of options market data for the ticker — put/call ratios, implied volatility, expiration dates. Reveals institutional hedging and sentiment
ATM	At-the-Money — an option whose strike price is closest to the current stock price. The most liquid and commonly referenced option in context
RELATIVE PRICE PERFORMANCE	How the stock's price changed over a period compared to its competitors. Shows whether the stock outperformed or lagged peers
COMPARATIVE VALUATION	Side-by-side comparison of valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, revenue growth) between the stock and its competitors
NEWS SENTIMENT	Average sentiment score across news articles about the ticker. Higher = more positive coverage. Shown per competitor in the report
avg_ticker_sentiment	The average sentiment score for a specific ticker's news articles (0–100). Appears in competitor news sentiment section
VALUATION	How expensive or cheap a stock is relative to its fundamentals. Shown as P/E, Forward P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, and where the current P/E sits in its 5-year range
FCF	Free Cash Flow — cash left after operating expenses and capital expenditure. Available for dividends, debt repayment, or reinvestment. Growing FCF = healthy business
Mgn	Quarterly Momentum — measures the stock's price trend over the most recent quarter. Positive = uptrend, negative = downtrend. Used alongside longer-term momentum (mom_6m, mom_12m) to gauge trend strength
earnings_eps	Earnings Per Share surprise — the difference between reported EPS and consensus estimate. Positive = beat, negative = miss. A key driver of short-term price movement
earnings_guidance	Forward guidance from a company's earnings call — management's outlook for future revenue, margins, or EPS. Market reacts strongly to guidance above or below expectations
earnings_revenue	Revenue surprise — the difference between reported revenue and consensus estimate. Indicates whether the company grew faster or slower than analysts expected
economic_gdp	GDP growth rate — measures overall economic expansion or contraction. Rising GDP = healthy economy, falling GDP = slowdown. Impacts all sectors differently
economic_inflation	Inflation rate (CPI) — the rate at which prices rise. High inflation erodes purchasing power and can trigger rate hikes. Low inflation or deflation signals weak demand
corporate_event	Material corporate events — M&A announcements, leadership changes, layoffs, product launches, regulatory actions, or lawsuits that can move the stock independently of fundamentals